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Emigration returns as headline news
By Noreen Bowden | June 24, 2008
Net emigration will return in 2009, predicts the Economic and Social Research Institute.
The ESRI says that we will have our first period of recession since 1983 this year, as our economy contracts by 0.4%, a reversal of a growth rate of 4.5% this year. Although it is predicting the resumption of growth next year, at a rate of 1.9%, it says that there will be a level of net emigration not seen since 1990.
While 40,000 are predicted to arrive in Ireland in 2009, 60,000 will leave. The ESRI notes that it is impossible to predict how many of those comprising the outflow will be immigrants leaving for their homelands or a third country.
The outward migration will be fueled by a predicted 60% increase in unemployment between 2007 and 2009. The unemployment rate is predicted to rise from 4.5% last year to 7.1% in 2009.
The ESRI’s predictions are attracting strong media comment. The front cover of today’s Irish Times says, “ESRI warns of recession, job losses and renewed emigration”. The Irish Independent says “Emigration spectre back to haunt after 20 years”.
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June 18th, 2009 at 9:52 am
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