ESRI predicts 17% unemployment next year
Wednesday, April 29th, 2009The Economic and Social Reseaerch Institute is predicting unemployment reaching 15% by the end of this year before peaking at 17% next year. The organisation is estimating emigration figures will be 60,000 over the next two years. The Irish Independent notes that the organisations cautions, “It would be wrong to call that a forecast. It is more of an assumption, because migration is so hard to predict”.
The ESRI also predicts that the economy will contract by 14% in the three years from 2008 to 2010, noting, “By historic and international standards, this is a truly dramatic development. Prior to this the largest decline for an idustrialised country since the 1930s had been in Finland, where real GDP declined between 1990 and 1993”.
The CSO announced today that the unemployment rate now stands at 11.4%, with 388,600 people on the Live Register. This is more than double the rate of a year ago.
Related web pages:
- Irish Independent: We’ve never had it so bad
- ESRI press release: Quarterly Economic Commentary, Spring 2009
- CSO: Live Register April 2009
Union highlights teachers’ emigration
Monday, March 30th, 2009Teachers are the latest profession to be in the emigrant spotlight, with the news that the Association of Teachers in Ireland has said that new teachers will be more likely to find work abroad.
The Sunday Business Post says that 2,500 to 3,000 temporary or part-time teachers would have ordinarily expected to find full-time work in Ireland; secondary school teachers generally spend between five and seven years before getting a full-time post. With cutbacks and an increase in the pupil-teacher ratio, however, there will be fewer jobs available to move into.
ASTI general secretary John White said,
So, your bright young person coming out from college will almost certainly be only able to get hours by filling in for people on career breaks, maternity or sick leave, or taking up the other half of a job-sharing position.That represents a very significant reduction in their standard of living and we are very concerned abou that. This is a very significant issue.
We are very concerned for them. It seems particularly sad as our teachers are in demand. From September, they will be going to work in England and other countries where there is a shortage of teachers.
Read the article:
Sunday Business Post: ASTI: Teachers may have to emigrate
New immigrants have better emigration options, claims “Economist” mag
Monday, December 1st, 2008Irish unemployment could be reduced by a percentage point with the emigration of 20,000 workers, says a report in the Economist. The report speculates that emigration is most likely to affect the 15% of the population that is non-national – mainly due to enhanced opportunities in the home countries of eastern Europeans, and declining economies in traditional Irish emigrant strongholds.
In truth, with the economic crisis hurting such traditional boltholes as Britain, America and Australia, as well as newer hotspots like Dubai, the options for laid-off Dublin lawyers or builders from Cork are limited. For now, though, things look brighter for those from Eastern Europe. Polish banks may be shedding staff, but this is a good time to be a Polish engineer or builder of big infrastructure. A torrent of EU regional aid is about to hit the ex-communist countries: across eastern and central Europe there are plans for new airports, fast trains and motorways. Poland has stadiums to build for the European football championship in 2012. The Polish and Lithuanian governments are actively trawling for workers in Ireland.
Think-tanks like the ESRI now forecast a net outflow of migration from Ireland of some 30,000 over the year to next April. Harder numbers are difficult to come by: Ireland is not a police state, and seasonal workers are tricky to monitor. Some emigrants will be Irish, or non-EU nationals. But the political significance is clear: if 20,000 workers from eastern Europe left Ireland, that would reduce unemployment by about a percentage point. Departing Poles would take their spending power with them, admittedly. But on balance, if they leave, it will be another reward for open labour markets. For the first time, a jump in Irish unemployment may be offset by non-nationals leaving the country.
In the most optimistic scenario, skilled Poles, Balts and others will head home to wait out the storm, finding secure (if lower-paid) jobs there, but then return when Ireland picks up again. This would be a big step forward for Europe as well. For such dynamic and flexible migration has been an economic grail in the EU for years, as politicians looked enviously at Americans’ willingness to move from one state to another in search of work. (In contrast, EU countries that impose curbs on foreigners give migrant workers already in them a reason to stay during downturns, for fear that it will be hard to return.)
Read the entire article at the Economist website..